A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
